A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
